Modeling the effects of climate change on crop photosynthesis, growth and development is vital for evaluating the future yields of crops, the risk of weeds and diseases in different cropping systems, and the future environmental threats.
This course aims at giving the Ph.D. student a thorough background in the development, evaluation and use of models of crops and cropping systems in the context of climate change. The course will include a combination of lectures, hands-on model development, and hands-on evaluation and use of existing models. Lectures and exercises will cover all steps in the modeling process: qualitative and quantitative model formulation, parameter estimation, and model validation and analysis. Parts of the modeling process will be exemplified using a simple simulation tool (PowerSim) and parts by using the simulation model DAISY. The practical and theoretical exercises will be conducted in groups. Each practical exercise will result in a short exercise report from each student. These reports will make up the student personal course portfolio.
After the course you will be able to:
• Explain how climate change affects crops and cropping systems
• Explain the relations between a model, empirical knowledge and the real system.
• Explain the main classification of models (static/dynamic, empirical/mechanistic, deterministic/stochastic) and other central definitions
• Extract an abstract model from a real system and to describe this model in text and graphs
• Reflect on choice of model type for simulation of crop growth, development and water balance and on the level of detail
• Evaluate the sensitivity of a model to uncertainty associated with parameters and input in crop models
• Reflect on the ability of the resulting model to describe a real cropping system and to predict future behavior of the cropping system by scenario analysis
• Explain the process in a weather generator
• Use a weather generator to generate climate and apply it in scenario analysis
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